Intelligence in decision making involves scanning the environment, either intermittently or continuously. It include monitoring the results of the implementation phase of a decision making process.
Problem or opportunity
The intelligence phase begins with the identification of organizational goals and objectives related to an issue of concern and determination of whether they are being met. Problem occurs because of dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Dissatisfaction is the result of a difference between what people desire or expect and what is occurring. In this first phase, a decision maker attempts to determine whether a problem exists, identify its symptoms, determine its magnitude and explicitly define it. Often what is described as a problem may be only a symptom of a problem.
Because real-world problems are usually complicated by many interrelated factors, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the symptoms and the real problem. New opportunities and problems certainly may be uncovered while investigating the causes of symptoms.
The existence of a problem can be determined by monitoring and analyzing the organization’s productivity level. The measurement of productivity and the construction of a model are based on real data. The collection of data and the estimation of future data are among the most difficult steps in the analysis.
The following are some issues that may arise during data collection and estimation and thus plague decision makers:
Problem or opportunity
The intelligence phase begins with the identification of organizational goals and objectives related to an issue of concern and determination of whether they are being met. Problem occurs because of dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Dissatisfaction is the result of a difference between what people desire or expect and what is occurring. In this first phase, a decision maker attempts to determine whether a problem exists, identify its symptoms, determine its magnitude and explicitly define it. Often what is described as a problem may be only a symptom of a problem.
Because real-world problems are usually complicated by many interrelated factors, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the symptoms and the real problem. New opportunities and problems certainly may be uncovered while investigating the causes of symptoms.
The existence of a problem can be determined by monitoring and analyzing the organization’s productivity level. The measurement of productivity and the construction of a model are based on real data. The collection of data and the estimation of future data are among the most difficult steps in the analysis.
The following are some issues that may arise during data collection and estimation and thus plague decision makers:
- Data are not available. As a result, the model is made with and relies on potentially inaccurate estimates.
- Obtaining data may be expensive.
- Data may not be accurate or precise enough.
- Data estimation is often subjective.
- Data may be insecure.
- Important data that influence the results may be qualitative.
- The may be too many data.
- Outcomes may occur over an extended period. As a result, revenues, expenses and profit will be recorded at different points in time. To overcome this difficulty, a present value approach can be used if the results are quantifiable.
- It is assumed that future data will be similar to historical data. If this is not the case, the nature of the change has to be predicted and included in the analysis.
When the preliminary investigation is completed, it is possible to determine whether a problem really exists, where it is located and how significant it is. A key issue is whether an information system is reporting a problem or only the symptoms of a problem.
Problem classification
Problem classification is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in a definable category, possibly leading to a standard solution approach. An important approach classifies problems according to the degree of structuredness evident in them.
Problem Decomposition
Many complex problems can be divided into subproblems. Solving the simpler subproblems may help in solving a complex problem. Also, seemingly poorly structured problems sometimes have highly structed subproblems.
Just as a semistructured problems results when some phases of decision making are structured while other phases are unstructured, so when some subproblems of a decision making problem are structured with others unstructured, the problem itself is semistructered.
As a DSS is developed and the decision maker and development staff learn more about the problem it gains structured. Decomposition also facilitates communication among decision makers. Decomposition is one of the most important aspects of the analytical hierarchy process, which helps decision makers incorporate both qualitative and quantitative factors into their decision making models.
Problem ownership
In the intelligence phase, it is important to establish problem ownership. A problem exists in an organization only if someone or some group takes on the responsibility of attacking it and if the organization has the ability to solve it.
The assignment of authority to solve the problem is called problem ownership. For example, a manager may feel that he/she has a problem because interest rates are too high. Because internet rate levels are determined at the national and international levels, most managers can do nothing about them, high interest rates are the problem of the government, not a problem for a specific company to solve.
The problem companies actually face is how to operate in a high interest rate environment. For an individual company, the interest rate level should be handled as an uncontrollable (environmental) factor to be predicted.
When problem ownership is not established, either someone is not doing his/her job or the problem at hand has yet to be identified as belonging to anyone. It is then important for someone to either volunteer to own it or assign it to someone.
Problem classification
Problem classification is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in a definable category, possibly leading to a standard solution approach. An important approach classifies problems according to the degree of structuredness evident in them.
Problem Decomposition
Many complex problems can be divided into subproblems. Solving the simpler subproblems may help in solving a complex problem. Also, seemingly poorly structured problems sometimes have highly structed subproblems.
Just as a semistructured problems results when some phases of decision making are structured while other phases are unstructured, so when some subproblems of a decision making problem are structured with others unstructured, the problem itself is semistructered.
As a DSS is developed and the decision maker and development staff learn more about the problem it gains structured. Decomposition also facilitates communication among decision makers. Decomposition is one of the most important aspects of the analytical hierarchy process, which helps decision makers incorporate both qualitative and quantitative factors into their decision making models.
Problem ownership
In the intelligence phase, it is important to establish problem ownership. A problem exists in an organization only if someone or some group takes on the responsibility of attacking it and if the organization has the ability to solve it.
The assignment of authority to solve the problem is called problem ownership. For example, a manager may feel that he/she has a problem because interest rates are too high. Because internet rate levels are determined at the national and international levels, most managers can do nothing about them, high interest rates are the problem of the government, not a problem for a specific company to solve.
The problem companies actually face is how to operate in a high interest rate environment. For an individual company, the interest rate level should be handled as an uncontrollable (environmental) factor to be predicted.
When problem ownership is not established, either someone is not doing his/her job or the problem at hand has yet to be identified as belonging to anyone. It is then important for someone to either volunteer to own it or assign it to someone.
